Nigeria's Econony Will Not Recover Until 2019, Says Atedo Peterside

Founder and pioneering Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of IBTC Chartered Bank Plc.

I attended an economic outlook session with top economists and top CEOs today and thought to  share some of the perspectives.  The session looked at Nigeria's economic direction for 2017. The summary: 2017 will be tougher than 2016. The economy will not recover until 2018, even 2019. Inflation will continue to be high (hovering around 20%)and Naira to dollar will remain in the 450s. With money scarce many more businesses will fold up, leading to job losses and more poverty. With inflation and high exchange rate the banks will not be able to give loans and when they do the interest rate will be too high to afford. With high inflation those with paid salaries are now actually earning less, that is if they will be lucky to keep their jobs... The presentation shows that all sectors of the economy (not just oil) are either falling or already in recession (below zero). Signs are all over: British Airways just converted it's Nigerian office into an agency; almost all foreign airlines now fuel in Ghana; many people now smuggle crops and raw materials out to earn dollasrs;  75% of vacant houses in Ikoyi and VI don't have buyers; Shoprite that opened in Ajah in August is still 70% empty as dollars to bring in goods is scarce and customer count is poor; 5 other big supermarkets in Lagos have closed shop etc.

The experts' advice:

1. Cash is going to be King and whoever has it or has access to it should preserve it.

2. Spend less than you earn; SAVE for the rainy day.

3. Cut down on avoidable merriment.

4. Expect the worst Christmas in 20 years.

4. Look for dollar or pounds-earning businesses if you can.